2009 China's ten predictions zt-President waved me through

 Forecast: the renminbi will become the world's third-largest subprime currency is the U.S. financial crisis triggered by the many problems encountered in a. In the handling of international issues, the Iraq war to the U.S. to huge financial burden, the U.S. government financial deficit, the problem is caused by the fuse of the domestic series. *** in the United States took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after the two lenders, which led to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch by Bank of America Securities Corporation acquisition, AIG companies are the U.S. * Government to take over and so on. Now, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group, the U.S. government to apply for transfer to the traditional banks, began operating a traditional individual deposits. these problems and the occurrence, on behalf of the traditional Wall Street model will be changing dramatically. also shows that the freedom of American capitalism and free market economic model in government intervention, with the color of socialism. This year is election year in the United States in the next few months, is also there will be other conditions, who do not know. For in the crisis and the collapse of this magnitude among the moneybags who closed down the pockets of the company is still full, but in ordinary taxpayers to suffer it. Finally, the debt or the United States from other countries, will be inevitable. is now very popular in the United States is a saying: The United States has no talent. as long as the elderly, such as the Republican McCain; black, as Democrat Barack Obama; and women, such as Hillary Clinton and Erin (the Republican Party Vice presidential candidate). The reason they come out in the presidential election because the United States now in question, not capable to Guan Dele. all over the world gathered once again to look to the Americans who are waiting to see the latest progress in the eye, Face mind, the abacus,bailey UGG boots, the European Union on the U.S. government's rescue plan indifferent, Russia is still a life and death, rich and strong in the days of disdain. Perhaps only the most sincerely hope that the U.S. rescue package be effective, because it China, the U.S. Treasury hundreds of billions of paper will not be wiped out. If China maintains a neutral position, do not join the U.S. bailout, even if the U.S. extricate itself from this crisis, the dollar can not be the only currency the world the. In the future the world's largest currency in circulation should be dollar, euro and yuan-third of the world. forecast: the first group of manner, it is the trial of China's reform and opening up point range. from the small village of farmers certainly had to the small village before the plenary session of the political implications, has been very clearly released. With 30 years of rapid economic development, urban-rural gap has been delegated to the highest in history. rural issues most important issue is the farmers, The primary problem is that farmers food production and food security issues. The policy of the original intention of the household responsibility system has completed its historical mission of the special period, increasingly evident. rural hollow, abandoned farmland of urban encroachment of the planting of more problems forced inefficient ; class may be called the package of the land cultivation of cash crops had to completely change the tradition of 5,000 years of Chinese agricultural production .--- With the continuous increase in their income, they will continue to expand the scope of their own kind of farming, more land transfer, the formation of larger , the industrialization of the farm economy - China's rural areas, power, more important is to promote rural economic development, promote the industrialization of agriculture in the genes. nearly 30 years, China's GDP growth is mainly investment in urban construction and urban development value of land resources to obtain. the one hand, brought about by urbanization starting to prove the prosperity of saturation, on the other hand, the state's financial investment for urban construction is too bulky, need to control compression. Moreover, urbanization, agricultural expansion in the number of occupied urban and rural areas to stimulate the limits of contradictions. In the face of economic inflection point in 2008 ,UGG boots cheap, China's urban construction has long been the voice of cool rumor. but there is no clear policy of the Central before the introduction of intervention, the local is not going away. So, in 2009 central and local control of urban construction investment will increase the intensity. You can assertions is, start from the Third Plenary Session of the local urban construction project will limited. just launched the urban construction projects is likely to stop from have approval of the project may also be left hand not at all. So, real estate companies, urban construction companies, bridge companies, the cement industry, building materials industry, construction equipment manufacturing and other related industries will go low starting next year. The most conservative estimate there are nearly one-third of the related industries forced to face the crisis or transition. predicted four: dragged down other real estate industry in March this year, the Chinese real estate sector, The media said: Since the beginning of June 2008, the Chinese real estate sector on a monthly ads in the media than the previous cost of advertising for a total cost of the entire year. We can see the developers are eager to get rid of the anxiety of mind is evident. No matter how real estate offers, sent to East West to hype, but the market is increasingly become price Industry funding gap of 900 billion of credit. profits nearly 20 years of real estate, different problems, the market is so willing to wait to die? mass of bank loans, a flood of projects to be built or under construction in the disposal? real estate bust of the largest banks, Chinese banks will not even When bound to deduction, squeezing the amount of loans in other industries. And other equally high dependence on bank loans industries, industries such as processing and manufacturing, foreign trade and exports, unable to obtain loans in the case, since only They seek more blessings .-- decline, dragged down largely to blame for the real estate industry. This year in September just in Zhejiang in the two business owners the causes of suicide, is because the bank loans drawn. And pumping loan reason is said to lend on real estate. due to the drag on the real estate industry and business, China is likely to reach about 50% of the total number of SMEs. predicted five: the U.S. economic downturn has triggered a big manufacturing Rush introduced from China in 1992 ; export tax rebate sales of products into three main areas, namely, the domestic market, the U.S. market and European markets. The United States is a favorite to take advantage of the country, China has provided a . the United States and Europe is different is that Europeans are more particular about the so-called Americans prefer to do business. For example, China's textile industry, toy manufacturing, leisure goods, clothing, etc. As in previous years by the European RICHE restrictions such as product standards, to a large number of turning the U.S. market. 30 years, while GDP in China has maintained sustained growth, but domestic demand is actually very limited. in the share of GDP, 75% of the growth came from towns with less than 35% of the share from the domestic market demand. So, when the U.S. economy recession, the domestic domestic market is unable to load disk access, the European market confidence in Chinese products can not change within a short time. a large number of products manufactured in China can have only one result: a serious backlog! China's reform and opening up in the first time in production, oversupply! such a large backlog of goods and supply, will make China an unprecedented manufacturing sector Rush. This warfare was first provoked by the foreign trade enterprises trouble, they would export large number of previously used more low-priced products to the domestic dumping, the domestic enterprises to keep their share will rise to the inherent back; then there will be mergers and liquidation, reorganization of the industry chain, such as turnover and market slump. In this great warfare, the damage should be the most foreign trade enterprises and part of class size, lack of capacity of the SMEs. predicted six: a sharp rise in the number of unemployed people, migrant workers return home even in the tide appears under the premise of the establishment of the Chinese economy is still very small probability of a crisis, but China the number of business failures or stop is very impressive .2008 nearly 100,000 business failures is the fact that the surges in hotbed of unemployment, then the premises of the industry in decline, export companies to reduce, suspend production for domestic SMEs, and so forth , will force the Chinese working class was forced to leave, dismissal, unemployment, their hometowns. In fact, as early as August of this year before the foreign-invested enterprises in Guangdong have been cleaning up the enterprise, in some Taiwanese PRD, the largest number of Hong Kong enterprises to streamline the total number of 50% of the original enterprise. These voluntary, passive resignation or repatriated persons, a small part of it will jump ship to other companies continue to work with the other part of the their own hard-earned money working for many years to do start a business or small business. but most will deal with rural land policies to promote the return home --- but they will not farm,Bailey UGG boots, they will use their own way of dealing with rights self-sufficiency Industry workshop will be the same as had been gradually enlarged Wenzhou, followed by capital to the countryside, farms, the economic rise of the formation of large-scale processing of agricultural products, agricultural products such as the direction towards a mature industry chain development. and urban enterprises will continue a and more serious. in the performance of China in recent years, this phenomenon can be clearly reflected by the Gini coefficient came out, China's Gini coefficient is close to 0.5, ranking highest ever level and beyond the natural values of the international alert line of 0.1. the facts reflected in this data high-income groups in Chinese society and the income gap between low-income people more than the international warning standards! low-income people in China is not our current focus point that farmers (in some remote mountainous areas, the Northwest was undoubtedly the kind of rural), urban Pinminjieceng is in the large-scale brewing and formed. cities Pinminjieceng including laid-off workers class, migrant workers, small business temporarily in those huge loans to buy a house an inmate, who moved into urban construction and occupation of cultivated land and more. Their common features are: no Higher education, no skills, no steady job or income, and income is less than the consumer or carrying too heavy a variety of lenders. With companies cut, suspension, closure, and streamlining the original survival in the city urban will rapidly become the urban poor family; third is like a large burden of mortgage This may be the formation of low-income group is discarded. Perhaps, when the quick success of the medium and small cities is likely to City hollow. one after another, who will the new high-rise buildings in which live? predicted eight: auto industry crisis, popular for new energy in China today, the biggest luxury in the automotive consumer. If the economy continues to maintain the status of development, even if by rising raw material prices, energy shortages and other costs, price constraints, China's auto sales will not have much effect. However, when stagnation of economic development, confidence crisis, the survival challenges, people of course, the first compression of expenditure such as cars like the bulk of luxury. China's annual output is 8500 cars million, the actual market demand of about 60 million, the already oversupply. and if slow-moving vehicles, coupled with rising raw material costs, the domestic auto industry will be very sad day. joint ventures, foreign investment in the automobile industry may be by virtue of their background, the strength and international markets, too, through. but it has to rely on the market to buy a domestic car, private car manufacturers, and as the upstream and downstream in the auto industry auto parts suppliers, service providers and a whole industry chain will be a serious crisis. - and this crisis is very difficult to overcome and reverse. to the contrary is a new energy industry. such as solar, wind power industry, there will be a geothermal energy industry has never had the boom and the blowout. quick reminder of this market action is motivated by psychological factors by market stimulation generated. because of the impact by faith, water heaters, general marketing costs are recognized because once the money spent, the unnecessary electric water heater as long as longer follow-up to pay the electricity bill. The car is completely different, cars bought after the start of only the consumer. followed by wind energy, wind power generation or as the conversion of civilian products; then to be able, for example, in Europe, has been developed using surface temperature as a new energy products for heating in winter. and this product has also developed the corresponding ground temperature floor, ground temperature water heater and other civilian goods. predicted nine: the world's major raw material prices fall, whether you believe,UGG shoes, the biggest U.S. bailout failed to benefit the world's major raw material prices fall. China's troubled manufacturing sector in recent years, the biggest factor is the bulk raw materials costs continue to rise, such as iron ore, timber, oil, rubber, and even soybeans, pork and so on. which are the root causes of large fluctuations in raw material supply and demand effects are not precisely based consortium led by U.S. investment house masterpiece of international note. They well aware of the technical content is not made in China, mainly depends on the processing of raw materials and simple conversion. note the high demand of any kind of Chinese goods, Chinese companies will eventually take over, as the stock markets, high prices and then there are people dares to buy, and when prices fall, lurkers, Wangfengertao were wrecked in an instant the tape pulpy. So, in the face of international financial market crisis and the sharp drop in export volume of Chinese enterprises, while investor confidence would be greatly weakened, other hand, China will push the prices reduced demand for raw materials. those who have the resources, raw materials, the country will be in the futures market to the international oil prices back to rational laws of supply and demand within the trade laws of supply and demand determine the market price of re-entry into force. prophecy Ten: China GDP growth will drop to about 7% in 1978, the Chinese GDP growth to 12.3% as a start to 30 years in 2007, only three years of 1981,1989 and 1990 the growth rate within 5% , most of the rest of the 27 years between an 8% -11% growth, the growth rate in 1984 which is as high as 16.2%. This is one of the ingredients of course there are many unscientific and irrational factors, but the whole of China 30 economic development is sustained and high growth In 2009 the Chinese GDP would be above the constraints and the impact of various factors, which has shown a direct result of falling GDP down --- but do not necessarily represent the regression On the contrary, it is possible for the Chinese economy to a more rational direction. The reason manifested in: a. lift the GDP of the urban construction to reduce weight quickly; II. domestic market as commodity market weakness caused by excess; three . reassemble the domestic market, reflecting the shock adaptation period; IV. national economic policy adjustment and development of strategic plans produced by the transfer buffer; five. consumer confidence in the reconstruction of the original post market cycles.