How many real estate investment can boost GDP growth -

 How many real estate investment can boost GDP growth?

of: Jie

- where housing was mentioned in an entire chapter, and put Space as much as high and can be described as unprecedented. This is indeed in line with the current economic situation. A number of economic officials said the United States, when the real estate market stability and recovery, the U.S. economic crisis to an end. Similarly,UGG bailey button, China.

earlier in response to the Chinese government announced the global financial crisis 4 trillion when the economic stimulus plan, put 100 billion investment in affordable housing in the first column. Widely believed to increase housing investment in fixed assets investment and stimulating consumption has a dual role in promoting stimuli. So,Bailey UGG boots, the real estate investment and the relationship between economic growth once again become a hot topic. In fact, a long time, theory and practice in the domestic sector, on real estate investment on the role of economic growth there has been a lot of controversy. Most researchers agree that the real estate industry has a critical role in the national economy, the pillar industry, stimulating effect on economic growth, but some researchers believe that the real estate in the role of China's economic growth have been exaggerated. The researchers even argued that in China, GDP in real estate investment single stimulus,UGG boots, and vice versa does not hold.

real estate investment and economic growth in the relationship between economic growth and development is related to an old topic in the literature. After World War II, many international scholars began to discuss whether the less developed countries as a development should be the engine of the real estate industry to treat, by the tilt of real estate investment and preferential policies as well as stimulating investment in other sectors of the overall economic development. However, early World War II, development economics in the main stream view is that real estate investment, especially investment in residential housing improvements, similar to a social welfare and security spending in the capital desperately short of time, such investment in economic development a drag effect. Economists at the time was generally accepted that the growth of real estate investment and residents to improve housing conditions can only be the result of economic development, by-products, and can not be the cause.

In fact, many of the planned economy and developing country governments, including the reform and opening up of China, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and even South Korea,Discount UGG boots, etc., adhere to this view, the real estate investment in housing as a particular low rate of return of investment projects, that its importance far less than manufacturing and infrastructure, housing improvement is to be kept to a certain stage of economic development, things to do before, end discriminatory policies on the real estate investment, as compression .

but since the 1970s, more and more international researchers that the real estate investment can become a driving force and engine of economic growth. Hold this view believe that real estate is a multiplier effect not only large-scale industries, and improvement of housing conditions there are many significant social and economic externalities.

conclusion, many studies have indicated that the benefits of growth, including real estate investment: real estate construction can increase the large number of jobs, leading to revenue growth; the accumulation of wealth through the promotion of residents consumption and improve social productivity to improve the health of the population level; pull many upstream and downstream sectors.

on real estate investment in China Industrial Relations, General Affairs Department of National Bureau of Statistics research group largely based on data from 2000 estimated the real estate needs of every 100 315 will ultimately affect the total output. From the driving effect of view, associated with the real estate industry in China are mostly capital and material in industries, non-material services in industries less.

1998 the decade since, the Chinese real estate investment more than 20% annual rate of substantial growth in the Chinese economy more than 10% for many years to make great contributions to the rapid growth of the real estate investment to GDP, direct contribution rate of 30% or more. But what happens next? Real estate investment there is much room for growth? This is a key issue.

the main body of real estate investment residential investment, accounting for more than 80%. On the proportion of GDP, residential investment, economic theory does not fit a fixed standard, but the experience of a well-known hypothesis, The World Bank also believes that, generally speaking, when the per capita income is very low (less than $ 1,000), housing can not become a major consumer packaged goods, real estate play a minor role in the national economy, general residential investment and GDP ratio 2%; when the per capita income exceeds a certain level, the level of access to middle-income countries (per capita 1000-5000 dollars), the general public on a rapid increase in the demand for housing improvements, significantly increased the importance of the real estate industry into the high-speed development period, residential investment and the ratio of GDP will reach about 8%; and then when into a higher level of economic development when the housing has a high degree of popularity, the real estate industry no longer has a strong economic effect, but also beyond the stage of economic development investments pull, then the ratio of residential investment and GDP will fall 3% to 5% level.

I recently used data in China 1999-2007 at the provincial level studies conducted in China also shows that residential investment and real estate investment share of GDP, GDP per capita between the present and the apparent relationship between the inverted U-shaped. I estimated that China GDP, residential investment per capita GDP4 million in the peak time of 9%, while real estate investment in GDP, per capita GDP should reach 4.5 million yuan reached the peak (about 12%), followed by there will be a downward trend.

Case of Shanghai, Shanghai 1999, the ratio of residential investment and GDP was 8.1%, after rising year on year to a peak in 2004, 11.2%, when the Shanghai per capita GDP was 55,307 yuan, or about $ 8,000 ( and the condition of our country is very similar to South Korea 8.8% peak in the same period). After declining in 2007 to 6.9% in 2008, even lower. Shanghai Bureau of Statistics show that the 1999-2007, cumulative sales of commercial residential houses Shanghai area of up to 1.9967 million square meters, about 200 million sets of new housing, and Shanghai, but also the current resident population of around five million, if a buy a new house, which means 40% of the people in the replacement of new homes over the past 9 years, even taking into account a store room and speculative factors, but also at least 20% to 30% of the households replaced a new house, and is the most that the purchasing power of housing part of the population, that is, resulting in lower demand for new housing, real estate investment share of GDP, a decline began.

In conclusion, I think, on the one hand the real estate industry's position in the Chinese economy is still very important, but on the other hand expected to remain as in the past ten years real estate investment as 20% to 30% growth range, is unrealistic. Reliance on real estate investment to boost GDP growth model has an end. China's future development direction of the major real estate industry from the enhance the people's living standards of housing.